Q40 / 56 · IAT (IISER) 2026 · Mathematics
Suppose there are two boxes $B_1$ and $B_2$, each having 3 red and 4 black balls. One ball is drawn at random from $B_1$. If it is red, 4 red balls are put into $B_2$, otherwise 3 black balls are put into $B_2$. Then one ball is randomly drawn from $B_2$. If this ball is red, what is the conditional probability that the ball drawn from $B_1$ was also red?
- Correct answerA$\dfrac{35}{57}$
- B$\dfrac{3}{7}$
- C$\dfrac{33}{53}$
- D$\dfrac{99}{257}$
Solution
Let $E_1$ be the event that a red ball is drawn from $B_1$.
Let $E_2$ be the event that a black ball is drawn from $B_1$.
Let $A$ be the event that a red ball is drawn from $B_2$.
The initial probabilities are:
$P(E_1) = \dfrac{3}{7}$
$P(E_2) = \dfrac{4}{7}$
If $E_1$ occurs, 4 red balls are added to $B_2$. The number of red balls in $B_2$ becomes $3 + 4 = 7$ and black balls remain 4. Total balls = 11.
$P(A|E_1) = \dfrac{7}{11}$
If $E_2$ occurs, 3 black balls are added to $B_2$. The number of red balls in $B_2$ remains 3 and black balls become $4 + 3 = 7$. Total balls = 10.
$P(A|E_2) = \dfrac{3}{10}$
By Bayes' theorem, the required probability is $P(E_1|A)$:
$P(E_1|A) = \dfrac{P(A|E_1)P(E_1)}{P(A|E_1)P(E_1) + P(A|E_2)P(E_2)}$
Substituting the values:
$P(E_1|A) = \dfrac{\dfrac{7}{11} \times \dfrac{3}{7}}{\dfrac{7}{11} \times \dfrac{3}{7} + \dfrac{3}{10} \times \dfrac{4}{7}}$
$P(E_1|A) = \dfrac{\dfrac{3}{11}}{\dfrac{3}{11} + \dfrac{12}{70}}$
$P(E_1|A) = \dfrac{\dfrac{3}{11}}{\dfrac{3}{11} + \dfrac{6}{35}}$
$P(E_1|A) = \dfrac{\dfrac{105}{385}}{\dfrac{105 + 66}{385}}$
$P(E_1|A) = \dfrac{105}{171} = \dfrac{35}{57}$
Answer : $\dfrac{35}{57}$
Let $E_2$ be the event that a black ball is drawn from $B_1$.
Let $A$ be the event that a red ball is drawn from $B_2$.
The initial probabilities are:
$P(E_1) = \dfrac{3}{7}$
$P(E_2) = \dfrac{4}{7}$
If $E_1$ occurs, 4 red balls are added to $B_2$. The number of red balls in $B_2$ becomes $3 + 4 = 7$ and black balls remain 4. Total balls = 11.
$P(A|E_1) = \dfrac{7}{11}$
If $E_2$ occurs, 3 black balls are added to $B_2$. The number of red balls in $B_2$ remains 3 and black balls become $4 + 3 = 7$. Total balls = 10.
$P(A|E_2) = \dfrac{3}{10}$
By Bayes' theorem, the required probability is $P(E_1|A)$:
$P(E_1|A) = \dfrac{P(A|E_1)P(E_1)}{P(A|E_1)P(E_1) + P(A|E_2)P(E_2)}$
Substituting the values:
$P(E_1|A) = \dfrac{\dfrac{7}{11} \times \dfrac{3}{7}}{\dfrac{7}{11} \times \dfrac{3}{7} + \dfrac{3}{10} \times \dfrac{4}{7}}$
$P(E_1|A) = \dfrac{\dfrac{3}{11}}{\dfrac{3}{11} + \dfrac{12}{70}}$
$P(E_1|A) = \dfrac{\dfrac{3}{11}}{\dfrac{3}{11} + \dfrac{6}{35}}$
$P(E_1|A) = \dfrac{\dfrac{105}{385}}{\dfrac{105 + 66}{385}}$
$P(E_1|A) = \dfrac{105}{171} = \dfrac{35}{57}$
Answer : $\dfrac{35}{57}$
Hence, the correct answer is option: 'A'.